Tom “Tommy Scoops” Bogert finally gave Loons fans what they were hoping for this morning: A rumor!
Unfortunately, it wasn’t about an incoming signing, but rather an offer for one of Minnesota’s top players:
I would guess the reason a bid was submitted at that value was to start discussions more than to actually try and make a deal; I would guess the reason the famously tight-lipped Loons front office let this one slip publicly was to let any interested team know that this wasn’t even close enough to dignify.
Rejecting that offer is the right move for two reasons: First, it’s far too low for a player of Tani Oluwaseyi’s caliber and second, the squad cannot withstand another sale without multiple incoming players.
Publicly available market values for players aren’t always reliable indicators of how teams actually value them — in no small part because outside of the truly top-end talent, fit is a huge component of a player’s value to a team. They’re a good place to start, though, and the $4 million offered by the Spanish club is a sizable miss based on what values are out there.
FotMob: $6 million
SofaScore: $6.25 million
Transfermarkt: $5.8 million
Particularly with other bidders in the mix, giving any buyer a sizable discount would be malpractice. Even if Tani were a negative influence in the clubhouse rather than the great teammate he seems to be or if he were coming out of his prime instead of going into it, dropping from $6 million down to $4 million would be a bitter pill to swallow.
There’s certainly a figure where it does makes sense to sell Oluwaseyi, he’s a brilliant striker and a great fit for the team, but if the same club came back and said “Whoa, hey, sorry, missed a 0 on that bid. That’s supposed to be $40 million.” the club would be foolish not to help him pack and drive him to the airport ASAP. I’d even personally donate enough Delta miles to get him SkyClub access before his flight as a thank you for his time with the club.
Of course, no one is going to offer $40 million — more than Chelsea paid to Ipswich Town for Liam Delap — so what’s the point between $4 million and $40 million where a deal could realistically happen?
According to fbref.com, Oluwaseyi’s top comparables are Sam Surridge (Nashville), Gustaf Nilsson (Club Brugge), and Brandon Vazquez (Austin).
Helpfully, all three have been transferred since 2023.
Nashville paid $6.5 million for Surridge at age 24.
Club Brugge paid $8 million for Nilsson at age 24.
Vázquez moved from Cincinnati to Monterey for $7.5 million at age 25 and Monterey to Austin for $10 million at age 26.
As the deal for Nilsson from Union Saint-Gilloise to Club Brugge and Vázquez’s return to MLS show, there’s a premium being paid to acquire a player that knows the league and has shown they can play well in it. That won’t be the case for Oluwaseyi unless the Pittsburgh Riverhounds decide to back up a heretofore unseen Brinks truck to bring him back to the USL Championship.
So setting aside the higher end deals with the in-league premium, $7 million seems to be about market rate for a player of Oluwaseyi’s caliber and age. That deal would dwarf Minnesota’s largest sale to date — Miguel Tapias’ $1.1 million move to Chivas — and even move past Emanuel Reynoso’s $5.5 million fee as the largest overall transfer in team history.
I wouldn’t blame Minnesota for taking it, but I would be profoundly disappointed to see a season that started so well undone by outgoing transfers.
The fixture clog of Leagues Cup swung a sledgehammer into the Loons’ resilience. They looked weary in the lackluster loss to Atlético de San Luis but four days later against the Colorado Rapids, they looked positively exhausted. Joaquín Pereyra in particular went from looking near his best against ASL to both mentally and physically drained by the end of the game against Colorado.
Down a goal and needing to find one last surge over the last 10 minutes and stoppage time, players were standing instead, waiting for the one perfect opening that never came. Even second-half substitutes Joseph Rosales and Julian Gressel seemed to have a half-empty tank when they came on.
Selling Oluwaseyi, even for a good price, before bringing players in further depletes the squad, putting more pressure on Kelvin Yeboah and the other attacking players and makes it far less likely that the team will have enough left in their legs to close out the season well, bring home the U.S. Open Cup, or make a deep run in the MLS Cup playoffs.
Dropping a starter, especially one so well adapted to Eric Ramsay’s system isn’t going to be solved by Darius Randell or Loïc Mesanvi — even if I’m still high on both players’ futures with the club — which means either highly skilled new players have to be on their way or the team is willing to sacrifice one of its best seasons ever for increased flexibility in the future.
That’s not necessarily the wrong thing to do, but players and fans alike are going to be upset and with good reason: Spending in MLS is changing. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is soon going to be a gulf and then a chasm not long after. Chances like this season, where genuinely competing for multiple trophies is even remotely possible, won’t be around much longer — unless the Loons are sold to a much richer ownership group, but that’s exceptionally unlikely.
How Minnesota chooses to handle the last few weeks of this window will be fascinating, but they’re already facing the consequences of playing the market rather than being ready to improve the squad without needing outgoing players to make it happen.
Selling Oluwaseyi now, with so little time to replace him and even less for his replacement to get up to speed, may ultimately lengthen the team’s window for a trophy, but the changes MLS teams are navigating makes that proposition even less certain than it used to be and it will come at the expense of this year’s very good chance at the US Open Cup. Flags fly forever.
If a team unexpectedly qualifies for the Champions League and decides to spend that windfall on a truly absurd bid for Oluwaseyi, so be it. Absent that, Minnesota shouldn’t sell at this point simply because a deal makes market-rate sense.