I’m going to skip my usual preamble and jump right into it: Here are three questions I’m looking to answer for this afternoon’s game against the LA Galaxy.
- Will the Defensive Organization Survive The Absences?
This season’s successes have all started with a defense that isn’t just stingy, it’s suffocating. They work well as a unit, covering for one another effectively, and forcing opponents into holding the ball in fairly non-threatening parts of the field.
By contrast, last season’s almighty swoon was due in large part to players being away on international duty. They didn’t have the same unit mentality and were weakest when opposing attackers could isolate a defender 1v1.
Today, the Loons are missing five players — all starters or at least starting caliber — and while they finally have some reasonable depth, it’s still a concern. My biggest worry by far is the back line.
Dayne St. Clair and Michael Boxall aren’t just assets in and of themselves, they are the organizational force that keeps a tight defense together. This season has already illustrated that Eric Ramsey’s defensive scheme works fantastically when everyone is committed to it and really, really does not work at all when concentration lapses.
Alec Smir has the physical traits to be a good goalkeeper and I think he’s a solid shot-stopper, but one thing that needs improvement is his command of his defense. Will he have improved enough between last season and now to keep them working together?
The pressure in this game will be on Smir and Morris Duggan to keep the defense in lock step, but a third player will also face quite the test and it’s not clear who.
Gabriel Pec is a menace. He torched the Loons in the playoff loss last year and while I don’t expect the same to happen this afternoon because of the Galaxy’s missing players, he can single-handedly cause problems. Joseph Rosales fully trained this week and would be in line to start, but facing Pec isn’t going to give him any time to adjust to game speed and that is a worry.
Anthony Markanich has been superb as Rosales’ replacement — ASA’s goals added metric has him as the Loons’ second-most valuable player this season — but there’s no question that a fully fit Rosales gives the Loons more two-way value than does the decidedly defensive Markanich.
Ramsey has a big call to make here, and it will be very interesting to see which way he goes. Were it up to me, I would be starting the game-ready Markanich and sub Rosales in when Pec has slowed a little bit and when Rosales can run at tired defenders.
- Can Minnesota Finally Show Game-Dominating Initiative?
Both Ramsey and Kahled El-Ahmad talked before the season about needing to keep the ball more, dictate more of the game to the opposition, and take some of the pressure off the defense. Through four games, that has not happened: They’ve yet to have more than 35% possession
Extenuating circumstances do matter here: three of the four games were on the road, two against very good teams that like to keep the ball, and the only home game was a frigid, snowy affair where neither team seemed to want the ball.
Today, the team will be home, in very decent weather given the time of year, and with very good reason to keep the defense from having to bunker in. If the team doesn’t take initiative and try to hold the ball in this game, they may never do it.
Tani Oluwaseyi’s absence is particularly unfortunate here since he’s among the Loons’ best at keeping the ball away from defenders, as is Robin Lod. With their hold-up forwards gone, the onus here is going to be on the midfield.
Wil Trapp needs to keep the ball moving on the ground after turnovers instead of looking for the home-run pass. Hassani Dotson must dribble effectively — something he has done far more in the past than he has been asked to do so far this season — to give his wings time to press up. Most importantly, Joaquin Pereyra must take on the role of orchestrator in the middle and attacking thirds, which brings us to:
- Can Joaquin Pereyra Take Over a Game?
Since joining Minnesota last summer, Pereyra has been one of the best offensive midfielders in MLS. Yes, seriously:
His effect on games is very different from Emanuel Reynoso’s and I would guess that’s what’s keeping fans from seeing his immense impact. But the numbers don’t lie, he’s running the team’s fast-break offense incredibly well: 90th percentile in progressive passes received, 90th in progressive carries, then 97th in shot-creating actions and 99th in both expected assists and expected goals.
Another reason he’s not getting the plaudits the numbers say he should: He’s incredibly inefficient. Through three starts and a short sub appearance, he has seven shots, but just two on target, and no goals.
This game will put him to a test he has not faced yet in MLS: He needs to be a maestro rather than a surgeon. To keep the ball, the Loons will need him to make smart passes and moves that build over time rather than the single incisive cut that frees Kelvin Yeboah. A great game from Pereyra today looks like very high short and medium pass-completion rates, a high number of fouls drawn, and a high number of key passes as opposed to a high number of progressive carries and attempted take-ons.
The lighting strike–style of play has been largely effective for MNUFC, but as they showed last week, having a multiple-goal lead may not be enough if the opposing offense has the time and space to work.
Even short-handed, LA will be able to unlock the Minnesota defense faster than Kansas City did if they’re allowed to do so. That makes it all the more important for the midfield in general, and Pereyra specifically, to build methodically and take the pressure off the defense.
Prediction
I haven’t a clue how this one will go. The Galaxy have struggled mightily in MLS this season, but looked better in the CONCACAF Champions Cup — they also didn’t play in CCC this week, giving them more rest than they’ve had previously. They seem to be finally adjusting to life without Riqui Puig at least a little bit, but still are lacking a cutting edge. They’re bad but not as bad today as they were three weeks ago.
They got their first point of the season last week in Portland, who are also bad, and the Timbers should have had a late penalty to win it. If it weren’t the international break, the Loons would likely win by multiple goals.
But it is the international break; the Loons are missing five starters, including the two stalwarts on the back line. I’m feeling a draw, but an early Galaxy goal would throw everything into chaos — they’re not built to sit back and defend at all, so it’s not even clear that an early goal would make them the favorites. It just means chaos.
This is a 1-1 game at its heart, but if the Loons can get a goal from someone other than Yeboah —Bongokuhle Hlongwane, Sang-Bin Jeong, or Pereyra — I think they can pull out a 2-1 win and I choose faith today.
Prediction: 2-1 Loons