I saw it happen live, I’ve rewatched it again, and I still don’t believe what happened between St. Louis City and Minnesota United on Saturday. By the time I got back to my seat after my pre-game duties, the Loons were down one; by the time I got social media posts up, they were down two. For the rest of how it all happened, I’ll throw it to Jon Marthaller. 

Jon’s right: Minnesota didn’t play a perfect game, but it was a beautiful game.

Without a doubt, a huge part of the story of the second half is St. Louis taking their foot off the gas ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Open Cup final against Columbus. But all that means is that there was an opening, Minnesota still had to take it. That they were able to is a strange validation of the implicit belief that the Loons have had all season: We’re doing the right things, the results are going to come if we just keep doing them.

One great result finally did come, but it’s too little too late. Surely. Right? 

Well, no. Not necessarily. This is MLS, after all, the deeply stupid is always possible.

Beyond MLS’ irrepressible chaos, Minnesota has been going off-script all season. They responded to getting blown out 6-0 in Vancouver by losing just once in their next eight — a game against LAFC they very easily could have won — including ending Dallas’ 11-match home unbeaten streak. Their losing streak defied statistical explanation. They have away wins over the third and fourth ranked Western Conference teams but got run off the pitch in Kansas City. 

Do I think Minnesota is going to win out? No, of course not. But this team has been underperforming its talent level since the World Cup break and they’re healthier than they’ve been since late May assuming Joaquin Pereyra is close to 90 minutes fit by the weekend. There’s a narrative brewing here, does that mean the Loons might have plot armor? 

What would it even take to get Minnesota into the postseason? 

Unless Texas or California seceeds immediately after election day, taking multiple current playoff teams with them, Minnesota will need to outmaneuver at least one of L.A. Galaxy and Colorado, the current 8 and 9 seeds, as well as the other three teams with an outside shot of sneaking into the wild card round: RSL, Portland, and San Diego.

The current cut line is the Galaxy’s 1.29 PPG; last year’s was even lower at 1.21. Those are both down a bit from 2024’s 1.38, but 2023 was the same as this year, 1.29. Targeting around 1.25 PPG to 1.3 PPG would mean the Loons need 43-44 points. They sit at 34, so to make Decision Day meaningful, they will need 9-10 from their last four games. Probably. 

This is a zero-sum game. Minnesota doesn’t get in if they hit a magical number, they get in if they get more points than at least four of their peer teams. So, if everyone around the Loons loses out – not technically possible because RSL and L.A. Galaxy play each other on Decision Day – then Minnesota gets in with two wins. (This is your reminder that MLS’ first tiebreaker is neither goal differential nor head-to-head record like every other league in the world, it’s total wins.)

Strangely, of the 23 games remaining for this five-team slap fight, just one pits one against another: the RSL/Galaxy match on Decision Day. Each team controls their own destiny. 

Here’s what each team’s run-in looks like:

LAG	COL	RSL	POR	SD	MNUFC
XXXXXXX	VAN	STL	CLT	SEA	@HOU
@LAFC	@SJ	@ATX	@STL	@VAN	SKC
ATX	CHI	@SJ	HOU	@STL	@LAFC
@RSL	DAL	LAG	@ATX	SKC	SJ

With games left against three of the five teams in this crab bucket, technically-not-yet- eliminated Austin F.C. has an outsized role to play in the proceedings. They’ve lost three straight, but it’s less damning than it seems: their opponents were Nashville, LAFC, and Vancouver. They could easily trip up L.A., RSL, or Portland.

The Quakes also play three of the crabs, hosting Colorado and RSL before their Decision Day game in Minnesota. The best case scenario for the Loons is that San Jose takes points from Dallas this weekend, then beats Colorado and RSL. Not only do they directly damage two of the Loons’ rivals but Dallas can’t punt their final game in Colorado, further increasing the Rapids’ difficulty. 

It’s odd to say that Minnesota is hoping their Decision Day opponent comes in on a three game winning streak, but it’s true. If that happens, San Jose will be unbeaten since August 22 when they got blindsided 5-1 by, that’s right, the Loons. The narrative possibilities are rich here but divergently so: If Minnesota wins, they’re San Jose’s bookend losses; if San Jose wins, they’ll have ended the Loons’ season twice, once in the U.S. Open Cup and once in the regular season.

L.A. Galaxy

By virtue of their extra game played, the Galaxy are in pole position, though technically in 9th by PPG. The point advantage they have is helpful in keeping them in the playoff picture, but they’re also the best team of this group: They have three wins in their last five games, the five have combined for just four. In fact, no team in the Western Conference has more points over their last five matches than LA does. 

El Traffico is an old-school rivalry match: Anything can happen and the relative quality of both teams barely matters to the outcome. Even so, between that match and their next in Austin, anything less than two points would be a disaster for the Galaxy, who would likely then need to win at RSL to keep their season alive. On the other end of the spectrum, four points or more from their next two probably means that the only thing at stake on Decision Day is who hosts the wild card match.

Colorado Rapids

Colorado’s schedule makes their run-in the toughest to predict. Their opponents are the most difficult quartet remaining, but they are the only team left with three of their four at home, Chicago may rotate playing an out-of-conference opponent on a short week, and Dallas may very well have their home playoff series locked in and rotate for their Decision Day trip unless San Jose can prevent that. 

The Rapids are three points ahead of RSL currently and five ahead of Portland, San Diego, and Minnesota. So while Colorado’s last win over a Western Conference opponent was August 29, so while they may be playing something less than their best soccer as the season ends, they do have some margin for error and may get some help from the schedulers.

Real Salt Lake

Speaking of help from the schedulers, RSL gets a full week of rest following their defeat of Kansas City but their next opponent does not. When they arrive in Sandy, UT on Saturday, St. Louis will be playing their third road game in a week across three different time zones. Following last year’s US Open Cup final, Austin lost to St. Louis and Nashville drew with dismal Montreal at home, so the letdown risk is real, especially after needing 120 minutes to claim the cup. RSL has a chance to steal very difficult points the same way Minnesota did last weekend. 

Even aside from catching St. Louis at the perfect time, RSL has two clearly winnable games left: away to Austin and the Galaxy at home. Neither is easy, but if they get 4-6 points from their next two, they’ll put tremendous pressure on L.A. and Colorado before hosting the former on Decision Day.

The last three teams are level on 34 points, which means they probably need to win three to have a serious chance at getting past all three of the teams ahead of them. 

Portland Timbers

The worst form of any of the crabs goes to Portland, who are winless in their last seven and have just two points in their last five. Their toughest remaining game is away to St. Louis – doubly so if the Fightin’ Imos do stumble against RSL – which means they likely need to win their other three. And yet, Charlotte coming west is a challenge, and Houston will arrive on a short week after playing in Seattle without much to play for if they’ve lost to one or both of Minnesota and Seattle. They will have opportunities to win both of those games, which would put them needing a win away to Austin on Decision Day. 

It’s a huge ask for a team that hasn’t won since the nine-goal thriller against Minnesota in early September. Stranger things have happened, but it’s such a narrow window, and they’ve done nothing for weeks to indicate they have this kind of run in them.

San Diego

San Diego is likely done. They’re level on points with Minnesota, meaning they need to find three wins from their last four to stay in the mix. Even granting them a preemptive win over Kansas City, they’ll need two more wins from hosting Seattle or away trips to Vancouver or St. Louis. Their competition isn’t with this group, it’s with Austin for draft position.

Minnesota United

Which leaves us with the Loons. As with San Diego, Kansas City is the mandatory three points, the question is where the other six come from. Their road isn’t easy, they have to play the West’s 4-5-6, but it’s easier than it looks. 

LAFC haven’t really gotten the new coach bounce and have won just twice since the end of Leagues Cup. Houston, similarly, hasn’t been as good lately as they were earlier in the season. They looked fine two weeks ago in their draw at Allianz, but hardly dominant, though they were without Hector Herrera. Minnesota taking care of their business and San Jose taking care of theirs would mean the Quakes come into Decision Day with nothing to play for and willing to rotate heavily ahead of the playoffs. 

As with Portland, the opportunity will likely be there for the Loons to do the unthinkable. For most of this season, Minnesota has been unable to take the opportunities they’ve been handed, — most recently failing to take advantage of the Rapids going down a man — but that was exactly what they managed to do against St. Louis. 

There is a version of this team that pulls this off. We saw them in April, against San Jose after the World Cup, and in fits and starts since then, but they’re there. Which is going to make it all the more frustrating when they can’t get out of their own way and draw a game they could have won to stay alive. 

The margin is so fine now, the kind of mental mistakes that have been plagueing the Loons all season will bring the fantasy to a screeching halt. I’ve tried to find the path for Minnesota that doesn’t require them to suddenly become a different team than they’ve shown themselves to be, and I can’t do it. They can absolutely get five points, maybe even seven, but it’s not going to be enough. 

Saturday’s win over St. Louis was wonderful, nothing that happens from here on out changes that. It also revealed a team that still isn’t performing like they’re capable of far more than  a team that just needed a spark to set them on their way to a long unbeaten run.

L.A. Galaxy and RSL emerge from the crab bucket just long enough for one of them to knock the other back in. The other four start preparing for 2027 and wondering where they went so wrong.

Predicted Finish:

8. L.A. Galaxy
9. RSL
10. Colorado
11. Minnesota
12. Portland
13. San Diego