Last season, Minnesota United knew they were playoff bound with several weeks to spare, but that was markedly different than either the 2023 season — when they actually did miss the playoffs entirely — or the 2024 season when a franchise-record losing streak during the summer meant they needed every last game to make it in.
2026 is shaping up to be another nail-biter, but not just for the Loons. 10 points separate 4th from 14th in the West, and Minnesota has games left against teams currently sitting in positions 2-7, 11-13, and 15.
For better or worse, Minnesota largely controls their own destiny, and the five games they have in September are going to largely determine if the Loons will spend the first week of November playing for positioning or playing for their lives. Yes, every game theoretically counts the same, but there isn’t much chance the six points on offer against Houston or the three remaining against Sporting Kansas City will affect Minnesota’s chances the same way the six available at the expense of St. Louis or the three at stake in Colorado will.
Minnesota’s next five game are:
Portland away
Dallas home
St. Louis away
L.A. Galaxy home
Seattle away
It’s not an unmanageable stretch the way the beginning of the season was or even the return from the World Cup break, three of those teams are below Minnesota in the standings, but every point is precious and the margins are getting slim.
Let’s check in on this rogues gallery and see what the Loons are up against.
Portland Timbers
Current Position: 11th
Overall record: 8-4-9 (28 points)
Since the break: 4-2-2 (14 points)
Portland has as many points in their eight games since the World Cup break as they had in the 14 games before it; it’s amazing what firing Phil Neville can do for a team! Minnesota ran them off the pitch at Allianz Field on April 18, but both teams are almost unrecognizably different from the ones that played that night.
Portland came out of the break red-hot going 3-1-0 in their first four including a pair of wins over Seattle, the first of which was a 5-1 thrashing at Lumen Field. They’ve since cooled off a bit, though they’re still miles ahead of their early season pace and Providence Park is never an easy place to play. Minnesota leads the head-to-head matchup between the teams 11-4-5 but when the Timbers play host, they lead the series 5-2-3.
There is little doubt that the Timbers have played better since ridding themselves of the Lesser Neville, but they may not be quite as good on Saturday as their recent form suggests. The wins over Seattle were impressive, but the Sounders were a shell of themselves due to injuries. They haven’t won since the break, lost seven in a row, and while back-to-back draws away to Cincinnati and home to Chicago are respectable results, they’re clearly not the Sounders of lore at the moment.
The Timbers’ win over surging San Diego certainly speaks to their improvements, but SDFC were without Anders Dryer. They took a point off LAFC in Los Angeles two weeks ago, never a bad result, but I’m not sure this performance is one they’ll want to repeat:
They’ll have Vincent Janssen back from suspension, but the 32-year-old hasn’t quite found his footing in MLS yet: He has more yellow cards (3) than shots (1) in his 43 minutes of action since joining the team. He’s being asked to pick up where Kevin Kelsey, the team’s leading scorer, left off before heading to Rangers.
While anything less than a win will elicit moans from frustrated fans, a draw isn’t a bad result here. That said, Minnesota has had far too many games this season where they could have taken all three points and only got one instead, which is why they’re in this scramble for points at all. Portland is more than capable of dropping points, even at home, so one point is fine but the Loons should be playing for all three.
F.C. Dallas
Current Position: 5th
Overall record: 9-7-6 (34 points)
Since the break: 2-3-2 (9 points)
Dallas hasn’t quite looked as smooth as they did before the World Cup, but with good reason: Saturday’s game against Kansas City will be their first at home since May 13. Even without their Roger Miller impression, their results are entirely explainable: the losses were away to Vancouver, who took out a poor performance from the previous week on them, and away to a resurgent San Diego. The draws were away to Portland, away to L.A. Galaxy, and away to St. Louis.
Any team with Petar Musa has a chance every night, especially with Logan Farrington playing a capable second-fiddle, but they’ve been shipping goals left and right – 11 in their last three – which has forced them to scramble for points rather than banking them. In St. Louis, they needed a 97th minute equalizer; against RSL, they had leads of 2-0 and 3-1 but still needed a 91st minute winner; and between the two, Vancouver put five past them. They’re never out of the game, but they’re also not putting teams away.
Their big money signing this summer — $5.3 million left winger Daniel Job, MLS’ only player named after two books of the Bible following the retirement of Numbers Lamentations — won’t help their defensive issues, but getting their goalkeeper back will. Dallas acquired Daniel from San Jose when the latter brought in Angus Gunn, but lost him to a hamstring injury against San Diego on July 25. He hasn’t yet made the bench for Dallas, so having him back to starting form midweek seems unlikely.
Minnesota already went to Dallas this season for one of their more remarkable results: For the only time so far this year, the Loons won a game with 50% or more possession. Even so, I have concerns about this matchup. Minnesota hasn’t given up as many goals as Dallas has lately, but they’ve certainly allowed their fair share of big chances. The Quakes couldn’t punish the Loons, but Musa et al. are a much more potent attacking unit.
Guessing at how the next few weeks will go for other teams is a fool’s errand, particularly with late transfers still blooding in, so I’ll save the last three for part two. In the meantime, if Minnesota can get 4-6 points from the next two, they’ll be in great shape. If they head to St. Louis badly in need of a win to stanch the bleeding, their season may be all but over by National Gumbo Day (Oct. 12).