There’s not enough data dropped in the MLSPA salary guide to really call it Nerd Christmas, but given that a union is behind the release, Nerd Labor Day seems more appropriate anyway. 

Top line: Minnesota has the ninth lowest payroll in MLS at $15.5 million, a figure that will presumably drop if and when James Rodríguez leaves after the World Cup. 

I’ve been trying to compose too much capital-N Narrative about the Loons lately, which they are apparently steadfastly averse to given how much seems to change from week to week, so it’s good to have a chance to do some good-old data analysis. 

You can find the raw data here: https://mlsplayers.org/resources/salary-guide

James Rodríguez Was Worth It 

The biggest unknown heading into this release was what the James Rodríguez experiment cost Minnesota. Now we know: $684,000 per year, so probably about $260,000 for the 13 league games he was with the club. 

Why probably? It depends how they structured the deal. He was only available for selection in eight of the 12 games that have already occurred — one assumes he’ll be available Wednesday for his send off, though, so call it 9/13 — but did play in both the U.S. Open Cup games. They may have also split the cost straight down the middle, in which case he’d be owed $342,000.

The deal wasn’t a success, but the extent to which it was a failure probably depends on the depth of your knowledge of his time with the Loons. 

Scout the stat line and you’ll see a pair of assists in about 130 minutes plus whatever he contributes against Colorado. That looks pretty dismal. 

Watch those 130-odd minutes and you’ll see him orchestrate Minnesota’s fantastic showing against LAFC that came up short as well as give the Loons their best chances to steal the game against Seattle. He absolutely contributed beyond what showed up in the box score. 

See what James brought behind the scenes and, based on some of the quotes from his teammates and team leadership, his impact seems undeniable. But most of us will never actually know what that impact actually was. 

Admittedly, basing the value of a player of James’ caliber on his off-field contributions is a bit damning with faint praise. The deal was always going to be a dice-roll. Now that we have concrete numbers on the size of the ante, it seems like a bet worth making, even if it was a push at best.

Anthony Markanich Is Still Underpaid

Long-time listeners of The Daves I Know will remember my unease with Anthony Markanich getting a new contract when it was announced last season. It was never about him in particular, he clearly deserved a new deal, but his offensive production was probably unsustainable — I broke that down here — and career-years in free-agent seasons are a recipe for disaster. 

For the first time since his deal was finalized last September, we have the numbers.

Markanich is making $395,700 this season, which means he’s the 26th highest paid left back. RSL alone have four players listed as left backs making more than Markanich is. The man he replaced, Joseph Rosales, makes $100,000 more. 

Meanwhile, not only is his contract team-friendly, his production hasn’t actually regressed as much as one might fear. According to American Soccer Analysis (ASA), he’s the 9th most productive defender (defined as center backs, defensive midfielders, and fullbacks), and still leads all defenders with four goals. 

Untradable contracts usually refer to players who are so overpaid, no other team will take them. Markanich may have an untradable contract in a different sense: It’s virtually impossible that Minnesota will find a player as effective as he is for as little as he is making. 

Big Money Misses

Minnesota has seven players making over $750,000: Bongi Hlongwane, Joaquin Pereyra, Julian Gressel, Kelvin Yeboah, and Tomás Chancalay all make over $1 million. Michael Boxall is next at $927,000 and Dominik Fitz is a step below at $893,000. 

Litigating who is or isn’t worth their contract always ends up being an exercise in myopia, but when the team’s total payroll sits at $15.5 million, seeing almost half of it underperform sheds light on Minnesota’s struggles to become a serious, consistent trophy threat. 

Since 2023, they’ve gone from being occasionally spunky to consistently strong, but there’s a clear gap between where they are now and MLS’ elite. The answer isn’t just for them to spend more — Houston’s Ezequiel Ponce, the worst player in MLS per ASA, makes twice what Yeboah makes — but until Minnesota hits more consistently on their upper-end signings, they’re going to look good week-in and week-out, but the actual ceiling is going to be lower than it feels like it ought to be. 

Put another way: Minnesota is a very good team and has been since 2024, but they aren’t considered a favorite in any competition they’re in, nor should they be. They rely on too fine margins to challenge for the Shield unless they defy probability and win a lot of coinflips in a row, and lack the gamebreaking top-end talent required to make it through the gauntlet of a playoff run or deep run in either the Leagues Cup or Open Cup unless there’s a demolition derby that takes out multiple teams above them. 

It can happen, but leaves the team’s fate in someone else’s hands.

Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap

It isn’t just Markanich that is producing value far beyond his salary, the Loons’ entire starting defense is highly effective on the field and highly efficient on the books. 

Player	Position	Salary	Salary Rank By Position	Contract Expiration
Drake Callender	GK	$505,917.00	20	12/31/2026
Kyle Duncan	RB	$437,889.00	27	7/1/2027*
Jefferson Diaz	CB	$435,000.00	77	12/31/2028*
Morris Duggan	CB	$113,400.00	127	12/31/2027*
Nicolás Romero	CB	$492,500.00	71	12/31/2028*
Anthony Markanich	LB	$395,700.00	26	12/31/2029*

*indicates a club option year. There is some ambiguity here as many of these deals were announced as concluding “at the end of the 2028 season” which is no longer really a thing. 

Considering Miles Robinson alone makes $3.95 million, an entire top-tier starting defense that makes less than $2.5 million total is a rare gem. Only Callender’s deal is expiring after the season, meaning this is the Loons’ core for the rest of this season, the 2027 sprint season, and 2027-28 full season. That’s a meaningful window but it’s also disappearing quickly. Yet another reason to hope the summer transfer window sees the team bring in high-impact attackers to make the offense as potent as the defense has been.

Minnesota United has done a lot of things really well over the last six months. Losing Eric Ramsay, Dayne St. Clair, and Robin Lod without bringing in equivalently big names to replace them made the club look aimless, a narrative only confirmed by their brutal loss in Vancouver. 

But time makes fools of us all. Aided by the arrivals of Danny Cruz and Tom Soehn, Cam Knowles looks like he’s found his footing as a coach. Callender is outperforming St. Clair at a lower cost. Lod has been very solid for Chicago, but Chancalay has been one of the signings of the off-season.

The Western Conference has been predictably brutal, but in spite of a terrible winter — both on the field and in the community — Minnesota is holding its own.

There’s enough in place to believe the team could make a run in Leagues Cup or make life hard on San Jose, Vancouver, and the rest of the Western Conference leaders, but not without squad investment.

Maybe Fitz comes good, maybe Gressel returns from injury and becomes the same kind of super sub James was, those would both make a material difference for the Loons.

But the longer I stare at these unholy spreadsheets, the more I believe bringing in a player that can force comfortable defenses to change their tactics is the key to becoming the team Minnesota wants to be.